Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity across western Luzon is the main driver keeping Manila's August 25 maximum temperatures centered on 30–32 °C, with PAGASA forecasting 31 °C or lower under 60–90 % rain chances and widespread cloud cover. Enhanced convection and reduced insolation from scattered thunderstorms and thick stratiform clouds suppress peak heating relative to clearer monsoon breaks. Model consensus from recent PAGASA and extended outlooks shows limited diurnal warming potential, consistent with historical August baselines near 30–31 °C when the monsoon is active. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (27 %) and 31 °C (24 %), while warmer outcomes above 33 °C remain low-probability unless a brief clearing develops. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will refine these near-term variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 25. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Manila am 25. August?
32°C 28%
31°C 24%
30°C 18%
33°C 14%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
26°C oder weniger
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
10%
30°C
18%
31°C
24%
32°C
28%
33°C
14%
34°C
8%
35°C
2%
36°C oder höher
1%
32°C 28%
31°C 24%
30°C 18%
33°C 14%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
26°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$112 Vol.
2%
28°C
$5 Vol.
3%
29°C
$20 Vol.
10%
30°C
$0 Vol.
18%
31°C
$0 Vol.
24%
32°C
$0 Vol.
28%
33°C
$0 Vol.
14%
34°C
$0 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity across western Luzon is the main driver keeping Manila's August 25 maximum temperatures centered on 30–32 °C, with PAGASA forecasting 31 °C or lower under 60–90 % rain chances and widespread cloud cover. Enhanced convection and reduced insolation from scattered thunderstorms and thick stratiform clouds suppress peak heating relative to clearer monsoon breaks. Model consensus from recent PAGASA and extended outlooks shows limited diurnal warming potential, consistent with historical August baselines near 30–31 °C when the monsoon is active. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (27 %) and 31 °C (24 %), while warmer outcomes above 33 °C remain low-probability unless a brief clearing develops. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will refine these near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volumen
$137Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity across western Luzon is the main driver keeping Manila's August 25 maximum temperatures centered on 30–32 °C, with PAGASA forecasting 31 °C or lower under 60–90 % rain chances and widespread cloud cover. Enhanced convection and reduced insolation from scattered thunderstorms and thick stratiform clouds suppress peak heating relative to clearer monsoon breaks. Model consensus from recent PAGASA and extended outlooks shows limited diurnal warming potential, consistent with historical August baselines near 30–31 °C when the monsoon is active. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (27 %) and 31 °C (24 %), while warmer outcomes above 33 °C remain low-probability unless a brief clearing develops. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will refine these near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$137Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity across western Luzon is the main driver keeping Manila's August 25 maximum temperatures centered on 30–32 °C, with PAGASA forecasting 31 °C or lower under 60–90 % rain chances and widespread cloud cover. Enhanced convection and reduced insolation from scattered thunderstorms and thick stratiform clouds suppress peak heating relative to clearer monsoon breaks. Model consensus from recent PAGASA and extended outlooks shows limited diurnal warming potential, consistent with historical August baselines near 30–31 °C when the monsoon is active. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 32 °C (27 %) and 31 °C (24 %), while warmer outcomes above 33 °C remain low-probability unless a brief clearing develops. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will refine these near-term variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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