Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo on August 25 show model spread centered near 33–35°C, driving the market’s tight clustering around 33°C and 34°C. Southerly flow off the Pacific high is expected to advect warm, humid air, but differences in predicted cloud cover, timing of any diurnal convection, and boundary-layer mixing determine whether peak insolation pushes readings to 35°C or holds them near seasonal norms of 32–33°C. Official guidance notes elevated heat risk with dew points near 25–27°C, while recent days of 31–33°C highs provide limited precedent for sharper day-to-day jumps absent a stronger ridge. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the 1–2°C uncertainty reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Tokio am 25. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Tokio am 25. August?
34°C 31%
33°C 24%
35°C 14%
32°C 14%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
7%
31°C
6%
32°C
14%
33°C
24%
34°C
31%
35°C
14%
36°C
5%
37°C
3%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 31%
33°C 24%
35°C 14%
32°C 14%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C
$10 Vol.
7%
31°C
$39 Vol.
6%
32°C
$37 Vol.
14%
33°C
$981 Vol.
24%
34°C
$140 Vol.
31%
35°C
$31 Vol.
14%
36°C
$5 Vol.
5%
37°C
$152 Vol.
3%
38°C
$311 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo on August 25 show model spread centered near 33–35°C, driving the market’s tight clustering around 33°C and 34°C. Southerly flow off the Pacific high is expected to advect warm, humid air, but differences in predicted cloud cover, timing of any diurnal convection, and boundary-layer mixing determine whether peak insolation pushes readings to 35°C or holds them near seasonal norms of 32–33°C. Official guidance notes elevated heat risk with dew points near 25–27°C, while recent days of 31–33°C highs provide limited precedent for sharper day-to-day jumps absent a stronger ridge. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the 1–2°C uncertainty reflected in current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$1,683Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo on August 25 show model spread centered near 33–35°C, driving the market’s tight clustering around 33°C and 34°C. Southerly flow off the Pacific high is expected to advect warm, humid air, but differences in predicted cloud cover, timing of any diurnal convection, and boundary-layer mixing determine whether peak insolation pushes readings to 35°C or holds them near seasonal norms of 32–33°C. Official guidance notes elevated heat risk with dew points near 25–27°C, while recent days of 31–33°C highs provide limited precedent for sharper day-to-day jumps absent a stronger ridge. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the 1–2°C uncertainty reflected in current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,683Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo on August 25 show model spread centered near 33–35°C, driving the market’s tight clustering around 33°C and 34°C. Southerly flow off the Pacific high is expected to advect warm, humid air, but differences in predicted cloud cover, timing of any diurnal convection, and boundary-layer mixing determine whether peak insolation pushes readings to 35°C or holds them near seasonal norms of 32–33°C. Official guidance notes elevated heat risk with dew points near 25–27°C, while recent days of 31–33°C highs provide limited precedent for sharper day-to-day jumps absent a stronger ridge. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the 1–2°C uncertainty reflected in current trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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