Ongoing containment efforts and the regionally limited geographic scope of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak explain the 96.3% market-implied probability of no Ebola pandemic this year. Since the May declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, roughly 4,600–4,700 confirmed cases and over 2,100 deaths have been reported, concentrated in Ituri and adjacent provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plus limited spillover into Uganda. Official surveillance from CDC, WHO, and Africa CDC shows no sustained international exportations, very low risk of spread beyond Africa, and active isolation, contact tracing, and cross-border controls that have historically prevented Ebola from achieving pandemic scale. Realistic scenarios that could alter outcomes include further expansion into densely populated urban centers, sustained transmission amid ongoing conflict disrupting response, or emergence of more transmissible variants, though current epidemiological trends and modeling indicate these remain low-probability events through year-end.