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icon for Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?

Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?

icon for Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?

Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?

Ja

29% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Ja

29% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No". "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph with a west-northwest track, will likely intensify to Category 1 strength before its closest approach to Hawaii’s Big Island on Saturday, yet the consensus track keeps the center passing just south of South Point or grazing the southern coastline without a direct landfall. This positioning stems from model guidance favoring a slightly more southerly path than earlier runs, limiting the probability that the eye crosses land while sustained winds exceed 74 mph. Official warnings highlight expected hurricane-force conditions and heavy rainfall on the Big Island regardless, consistent with climatological patterns where central Pacific storms often weaken or recurve upon island interaction. Updated aircraft reconnaissance and morning model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine track and intensity details ahead of the weekend window.

This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".

"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).

The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.

This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Volumen
$6,824
Enddatum
19. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No". "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No". "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Lala, currently at 65 mph with a west-northwest track, will likely intensify to Category 1 strength before its closest approach to Hawaii’s Big Island on Saturday, yet the consensus track keeps the center passing just south of South Point or grazing the southern coastline without a direct landfall. This positioning stems from model guidance favoring a slightly more southerly path than earlier runs, limiting the probability that the eye crosses land while sustained winds exceed 74 mph. Official warnings highlight expected hurricane-force conditions and heavy rainfall on the Big Island regardless, consistent with climatological patterns where central Pacific storms often weaken or recurve upon island interaction. Updated aircraft reconnaissance and morning model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine track and intensity details ahead of the weekend window.

This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".

"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).

The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.

This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Volumen
$6,824
Enddatum
19. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No". "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument). The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs. This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.

Verwandte

icon for Wird ein Hurrikan vor 2027 auf Hawaii treffen?

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Wird ein Hurrikan im August in den USA auf Land treffen?

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Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii treffen?" mit 29%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 29¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 29% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii landen?" ist „Wird der Tropensturm Lala als Hurrikan auf Hawaii treffen?" mit 29%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 29% zuweist. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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