**Persistent summer warmth and humidity are anchoring Miami's overnight lows near 79–82°F, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 78–83°F.** Typical August climatology features average daily lows of 78°F, but recent observations and short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models show overnight minima holding in the upper 70s to low 80s amid high moisture content, light winds, and variable cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. For the night of August 15–16, guidance indicates a most likely range of 79–82°F, with small differences driven by exact timing of any scattered showers or changes in boundary-layer moisture. Traders have concentrated volume on the three central bins because model spreads and local microclimate effects create genuine uncertainty within a narrow band, while tails below 76°F or above 85°F remain low-probability outliers given the absence of strong frontal passages or unusual synoptic setups. Updated model runs and real-time observations on the morning of August 16 will be the primary catalysts for any last-minute shifts.