Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like NIWA and international ensembles show Wellington's maximum temperature on August 15 most likely falling in the 13–15°C range, consistent with near-average winter conditions and marine moderation from Cook Strait. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover and wind direction: persistent southerlies or frontal passages limit daytime heating and favor the lower end near 14°C, while clearer skies or northerly flow could allow brief warming toward 15°C. Seasonal climatology places typical August highs around 12–14°C, with low day-to-day variance this time of year. Traders weigh model spread and recent runs showing modest uncertainty from evolving synoptic patterns ahead of the event.