Recent record-breaking heat in Hong Kong, peaking near 37°C on August 9 under Typhoon Dolphin’s subsiding air, has elevated trader focus on persistence versus moderation for August 13. Official Hong Kong Observatory and model guidance now project daytime maxima of 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, tempering extremes while humidity remains high. Seasonal forecasts indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term variables—cloud cover, convective rainfall timing, and steering patterns—create tight clustering around 32–33°C. These factors explain the narrow spread in market-implied odds, with 33°C edging ahead on consensus for modest cooling from peak heatwave conditions. Updated HKO briefings and next model runs will likely refine resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 13. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 13. August?
33°C 42%
32°C 33%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEU
NEU
13. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
9%
32°C
33%
33°C
42%
34°C
15%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 42%
32°C 33%
34°C 15%
31°C 9%
NEU
NEU
13. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
$413 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$418 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$82 Vol.
1%
30°C
$379 Vol.
2%
31°C
$141 Vol.
9%
32°C
$135 Vol.
33%
33°C
$291 Vol.
42%
34°C
$177 Vol.
15%
35°C
$301 Vol.
4%
36°C
$185 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$65 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent record-breaking heat in Hong Kong, peaking near 37°C on August 9 under Typhoon Dolphin’s subsiding air, has elevated trader focus on persistence versus moderation for August 13. Official Hong Kong Observatory and model guidance now project daytime maxima of 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, tempering extremes while humidity remains high. Seasonal forecasts indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term variables—cloud cover, convective rainfall timing, and steering patterns—create tight clustering around 32–33°C. These factors explain the narrow spread in market-implied odds, with 33°C edging ahead on consensus for modest cooling from peak heatwave conditions. Updated HKO briefings and next model runs will likely refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$2,587Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent record-breaking heat in Hong Kong, peaking near 37°C on August 9 under Typhoon Dolphin’s subsiding air, has elevated trader focus on persistence versus moderation for August 13. Official Hong Kong Observatory and model guidance now project daytime maxima of 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, tempering extremes while humidity remains high. Seasonal forecasts indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term variables—cloud cover, convective rainfall timing, and steering patterns—create tight clustering around 32–33°C. These factors explain the narrow spread in market-implied odds, with 33°C edging ahead on consensus for modest cooling from peak heatwave conditions. Updated HKO briefings and next model runs will likely refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,587Enddatum
13. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent record-breaking heat in Hong Kong, peaking near 37°C on August 9 under Typhoon Dolphin’s subsiding air, has elevated trader focus on persistence versus moderation for August 13. Official Hong Kong Observatory and model guidance now project daytime maxima of 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, tempering extremes while humidity remains high. Seasonal forecasts indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall, yet short-term variables—cloud cover, convective rainfall timing, and steering patterns—create tight clustering around 32–33°C. These factors explain the narrow spread in market-implied odds, with 33°C edging ahead on consensus for modest cooling from peak heatwave conditions. Updated HKO briefings and next model runs will likely refine resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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