Recent short-term forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a highest temperature in Busan on August 16 most likely in the 27–28°C range, with market-implied odds reflecting close consensus around these values amid typical late-summer variability. Persistent high humidity, possible cloud cover from monsoon remnants, and potential for scattered afternoon showers could cap peak readings below seasonal averages near 30–31°C. El Niño conditions are contributing to regionally elevated baseline warmth, yet model differences in steering patterns and diurnal heating introduce enough uncertainty to spread probability across adjacent thresholds. Updated guidance from official agencies on August 15 will likely refine the outcome as the event nears resolution.