The closely matched trader odds between 32–34°C for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on August 16 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in a subtropical monsoon environment. Key differentiating factors include variable monsoon moisture transport and afternoon convective development, which can suppress peak readings through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer conditions allowing greater solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the densely built city. Ensemble guidance shows model spread tied to sea-breeze timing and any passing disturbances from the South China Sea, with stronger onshore flow favoring the lower end of the range. Updated runs over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 16. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 16. August?
33°C 33%
34°C 25%
32°C 24%
35°C 12%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
24%
33°C
33%
34°C
25%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 33%
34°C 25%
32°C 24%
35°C 12%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
27°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$29 Vol.
1%
30°C
$9 Vol.
5%
31°C
$3 Vol.
11%
32°C
$0 Vol.
24%
33°C
$35 Vol.
33%
34°C
$33 Vol.
25%
35°C
$3 Vol.
12%
36°C
$107 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched trader odds between 32–34°C for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on August 16 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in a subtropical monsoon environment. Key differentiating factors include variable monsoon moisture transport and afternoon convective development, which can suppress peak readings through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer conditions allowing greater solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the densely built city. Ensemble guidance shows model spread tied to sea-breeze timing and any passing disturbances from the South China Sea, with stronger onshore flow favoring the lower end of the range. Updated runs over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$477Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched trader odds between 32–34°C for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on August 16 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in a subtropical monsoon environment. Key differentiating factors include variable monsoon moisture transport and afternoon convective development, which can suppress peak readings through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer conditions allowing greater solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the densely built city. Ensemble guidance shows model spread tied to sea-breeze timing and any passing disturbances from the South China Sea, with stronger onshore flow favoring the lower end of the range. Updated runs over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$477Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched trader odds between 32–34°C for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on August 16 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in a subtropical monsoon environment. Key differentiating factors include variable monsoon moisture transport and afternoon convective development, which can suppress peak readings through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, versus clearer conditions allowing greater solar heating and urban heat-island amplification in the densely built city. Ensemble guidance shows model spread tied to sea-breeze timing and any passing disturbances from the South China Sea, with stronger onshore flow favoring the lower end of the range. Updated runs over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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