Forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS show a warming trend into August 16 driven by high-pressure dominance, modest warm-air advection from the southeast, and increasing insolation, supporting market-implied odds centered on 28–30 °C. Key variables include daytime cloud cover and any late-day frontal passage that could cap maximum temperatures through reduced solar heating or trigger isolated thunderstorms, as hinted in recent guidance. Ensemble spread reflects typical short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and wind direction, with historical August maxima in Warsaw averaging near 23–25 °C but recent analogs favoring upper-20s under similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten probabilities ahead of resolution.