Hong Kong's subtropical summer climate produces typical minimum temperatures of 26–28°C in mid-August, driven by high humidity, weak monsoon flows, and frequent cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory show the August 17 low centered near 27–28°C, with modest day-to-day variability from passing troughs or localized showers that could nudge readings down to 26°C or hold them at 28°C. The closely matched market probabilities around these values reflect genuine model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns, plus the inherent uncertainty in short-range tropical forecasts where small shifts in steering flow or precipitation timing alter overnight minima by 1–2°C. Upcoming model runs and official bulletins will likely tighten this range ahead of resolution.