Current widespread extreme drought across much of Oregon, with D3 conditions covering over 20% of the state and D4 at near zero percent as of late July 2026, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds for reaching D4 by August 31. NOAA seasonal and monthly outlooks highlight continued hot, dry weather favoring further expansion in the Northwest, consistent with low precipitation, depleted snowpack, and multi-year deficits. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor updates show rapid worsening, with 88%+ of the state now in drought—the most extensive since 2022—while official monitoring indicates limited relief potential before month-end. Upcoming weekly USDM releases through late August represent key data points that could confirm or delay D4 classification under established intensity criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于俄勒冈州会在2026年8月31日达到D4 （异常干旱）吗？
俄勒冈州会在2026年8月31日达到D4 （异常干旱）吗？
88% 概率
$17,945 交易量
$17,945 交易量
2026-09-01
88% 概率
$17,945 交易量
$17,945 交易量
2026-09-01
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Current widespread extreme drought across much of Oregon, with D3 conditions covering over 20% of the state and D4 at near zero percent as of late July 2026, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds for reaching D4 by August 31. NOAA seasonal and monthly outlooks highlight continued hot, dry weather favoring further expansion in the Northwest, consistent with low precipitation, depleted snowpack, and multi-year deficits. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor updates show rapid worsening, with 88%+ of the state now in drought—the most extensive since 2022—while official monitoring indicates limited relief potential before month-end. Upcoming weekly USDM releases through late August represent key data points that could confirm or delay D4 classification under established intensity criteria.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
交易量
$17,945结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Current widespread extreme drought across much of Oregon, with D3 conditions covering over 20% of the state and D4 at near zero percent as of late July 2026, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds for reaching D4 by August 31. NOAA seasonal and monthly outlooks highlight continued hot, dry weather favoring further expansion in the Northwest, consistent with low precipitation, depleted snowpack, and multi-year deficits. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor updates show rapid worsening, with 88%+ of the state now in drought—the most extensive since 2022—while official monitoring indicates limited relief potential before month-end. Upcoming weekly USDM releases through late August represent key data points that could confirm or delay D4 classification under established intensity criteria.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
交易量
$17,945结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current widespread extreme drought across much of Oregon, with D3 conditions covering over 20% of the state and D4 at near zero percent as of late July 2026, underpins the 89.5% market-implied odds for reaching D4 by August 31. NOAA seasonal and monthly outlooks highlight continued hot, dry weather favoring further expansion in the Northwest, consistent with low precipitation, depleted snowpack, and multi-year deficits. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor updates show rapid worsening, with 88%+ of the state now in drought—the most extensive since 2022—while official monitoring indicates limited relief potential before month-end. Upcoming weekly USDM releases through late August represent key data points that could confirm or delay D4 classification under established intensity criteria.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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