Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
8月11日伊斯坦布尔气温最高？
28°C 47%
27°C 25%
29°C 22%
26°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
12%
27°C
25%
28°C
47%
29°C
22%
30°C
5%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
5%
28°C 47%
27°C 25%
29°C 22%
26°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
23°C or below
$12 交易量
<1%
24°C
$12 交易量
1%
25°C
$39 交易量
6%
26°C
$0 交易量
12%
27°C
$0 交易量
25%
28°C
$7 交易量
47%
29°C
$0 交易量
22%
30°C
$0 交易量
5%
31°C
$2 交易量
4%
32°C
$17 交易量
6%
33°C or higher
$17 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$106结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$106结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Istanbul’s August 11 daily maximum centers on 27–29 °C because short-range numerical guidance (GFS, ECMWF) and regional models initialized in early August 2026 place the city under a typical late-summer anticyclonic regime with modest northerly flow off the Black Sea. This steering pattern favors daytime highs near the long-term August mean of 28 °C while limiting extreme surface heating through marine moderation and afternoon sea-breeze development. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with most members clustering between 26–30 °C and only small tails extending to 31 °C or above, consistent with the market’s steep probability drop-off beyond 29 °C. No major synoptic shifts—such as a strong subtropical ridge or Saharan air intrusion—have appeared in the latest model runs, keeping the distribution tightly anchored around climatology. Updated 48-hour forecasts issued on 9 August will be the next catalyst that could narrow or shift the implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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