Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km², tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has provided an early melt-season head start, with June and July extents ranking among the five lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data. Current early-August coverage near 7 million km² remains below the 1981–2010 average but not at historic lows, leaving substantial room for weather-driven variability through September. Model trajectories and statistical relationships between mid-summer extent and the annual minimum point to outcomes clustered between roughly 4.0–5.2 million km², with trader emphasis on 4.2–4.4 million km² reflecting expectations of typical late-summer melt rates rather than extreme atmospheric patterns that could push values lower or allow modest recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
420万-440万平方公里 30.2%
460万-480万平方公里 25.3%
少于400万平方公里 20%
440万-460万平方公里 19.0%
$65,669 交易量
$65,669 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
20%
400-420万平方公里
14%
420万-440万平方公里
33%
440万-460万平方公里
20%
460万-480万平方公里
25%
480万-500万平方公里
3%
500万平方公里以上
5%
420万-440万平方公里 30.2%
460万-480万平方公里 25.3%
少于400万平方公里 20%
440万-460万平方公里 19.0%
$65,669 交易量
$65,669 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$29,945 交易量
20%
400-420万平方公里
$6,392 交易量
14%
420万-440万平方公里
$2,730 交易量
33%
440万-460万平方公里
$2,957 交易量
20%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,551 交易量
25%
480万-500万平方公里
$2,757 交易量
3%
500万平方公里以上
$14,336 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km², tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has provided an early melt-season head start, with June and July extents ranking among the five lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data. Current early-August coverage near 7 million km² remains below the 1981–2010 average but not at historic lows, leaving substantial room for weather-driven variability through September. Model trajectories and statistical relationships between mid-summer extent and the annual minimum point to outcomes clustered between roughly 4.0–5.2 million km², with trader emphasis on 4.2–4.4 million km² reflecting expectations of typical late-summer melt rates rather than extreme atmospheric patterns that could push values lower or allow modest recovery.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$65,669结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km², tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has provided an early melt-season head start, with June and July extents ranking among the five lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data. Current early-August coverage near 7 million km² remains below the 1981–2010 average but not at historic lows, leaving substantial room for weather-driven variability through September. Model trajectories and statistical relationships between mid-summer extent and the annual minimum point to outcomes clustered between roughly 4.0–5.2 million km², with trader emphasis on 4.2–4.4 million km² reflecting expectations of typical late-summer melt rates rather than extreme atmospheric patterns that could push values lower or allow modest recovery.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$65,669结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent of 14.29 million km², tied for the smallest in the satellite record, has provided an early melt-season head start, with June and July extents ranking among the five lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF data. Current early-August coverage near 7 million km² remains below the 1981–2010 average but not at historic lows, leaving substantial room for weather-driven variability through September. Model trajectories and statistical relationships between mid-summer extent and the annual minimum point to outcomes clustered between roughly 4.0–5.2 million km², with trader emphasis on 4.2–4.4 million km² reflecting expectations of typical late-summer melt rates rather than extreme atmospheric patterns that could push values lower or allow modest recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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