Taiwan's fixed four-year presidential term, which runs through May 2028 after Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration, forms the core structural barrier to removal by the end of 2026. An opposition-led impeachment effort in the Legislative Yuan reached a final vote in May 2026 but fell well short of the required two-thirds supermajority, underscoring limited institutional pathways for early ouster. No recall mechanism applies at the presidential level, and no snap election or constitutional trigger is scheduled within the narrow remaining window. Trader consensus at 96 percent reflects these constraints alongside Lai's continued public role and absence of acute health or resignation signals. Even so, an unforeseen health event, major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or sudden cross-party realignment could still shift the timeline before December 31.