Traders assign the highest probability to United Russia securing 325–339 seats in the September 2026 State Duma election because the ruling party maintains dominant administrative control and faces minimal genuine competition from other registered parties. Preparations including party primaries, a three-day voting window, and emphasis on turnout in regions have reinforced expectations of results close to the 324 seats won in 2021, even amid wartime polling showing support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range. Factors that could shift volume toward the 340–354 bracket include stronger nationalist mobilization around the Ukraine conflict or higher coerced participation, while economic strains or lower enthusiasm might consolidate bets on the 310–324 range. The dispersed pricing across mid-300s outcomes reflects the opaque nature of managed electoral processes and limited independent polling visibility.