Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models center on a daytime maximum of 38–39 °C for Madrid on 18 August under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow strong surface heating. These conditions align with typical late-summer anticyclonic patterns in the Iberian interior, where August climatological highs average near 33–35 °C but frequently reach the upper 30s when subsidence and minimal cloud cover coincide. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39 °C (55.5 %) versus 38 °C (33.5 %) reflects trader evaluation of small uncertainties in model runs—such as exact boundary-layer moisture or localized urban heat-island effects—while probabilities below 37 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of frontal systems or significant cooling advection in the latest guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月18日马德里气温最高？
8月18日马德里气温最高？
39°C 56%
38°C 34%
40°C 9%
37°C 2%
最新
$39,710 交易量
最新
$39,710 交易量
2026-08-18
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
34%
39°C
56%
40°C
9%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 56%
38°C 34%
40°C 9%
37°C 2%
最新
$39,710 交易量
最新
$39,710 交易量
2026-08-18
34°C or below
$1,174 交易量
<1%
35°C
$1,622 交易量
<1%
36°C
$2,675 交易量
1%
37°C
$3,847 交易量
2%
38°C
$9,815 交易量
34%
39°C
$8,765 交易量
56%
40°C
$7,765 交易量
9%
41°C
$2,176 交易量
<1%
42°C
$942 交易量
<1%
43°C
$330 交易量
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models center on a daytime maximum of 38–39 °C for Madrid on 18 August under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow strong surface heating. These conditions align with typical late-summer anticyclonic patterns in the Iberian interior, where August climatological highs average near 33–35 °C but frequently reach the upper 30s when subsidence and minimal cloud cover coincide. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39 °C (55.5 %) versus 38 °C (33.5 %) reflects trader evaluation of small uncertainties in model runs—such as exact boundary-layer moisture or localized urban heat-island effects—while probabilities below 37 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of frontal systems or significant cooling advection in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$39,710结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models center on a daytime maximum of 38–39 °C for Madrid on 18 August under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow strong surface heating. These conditions align with typical late-summer anticyclonic patterns in the Iberian interior, where August climatological highs average near 33–35 °C but frequently reach the upper 30s when subsidence and minimal cloud cover coincide. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39 °C (55.5 %) versus 38 °C (33.5 %) reflects trader evaluation of small uncertainties in model runs—such as exact boundary-layer moisture or localized urban heat-island effects—while probabilities below 37 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of frontal systems or significant cooling advection in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$39,710结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETOfficial forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting global models center on a daytime maximum of 38–39 °C for Madrid on 18 August under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow strong surface heating. These conditions align with typical late-summer anticyclonic patterns in the Iberian interior, where August climatological highs average near 33–35 °C but frequently reach the upper 30s when subsidence and minimal cloud cover coincide. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39 °C (55.5 %) versus 38 °C (33.5 %) reflects trader evaluation of small uncertainties in model runs—such as exact boundary-layer moisture or localized urban heat-island effects—while probabilities below 37 °C or above 40 °C remain minimal given the absence of frontal systems or significant cooling advection in the latest guidance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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