Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月19日马德里气温最高？
8月19日马德里气温最高？
36°C 56%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
最新
$15,925 交易量
最新
$15,925 交易量
2026-08-19
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
20%
36°C
56%
37°C
22%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 56%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
最新
$15,925 交易量
最新
$15,925 交易量
2026-08-19
32°C or below
$468 交易量
<1%
33°C
$1,176 交易量
1%
34°C
$875 交易量
3%
35°C
$2,535 交易量
20%
36°C
$5,311 交易量
56%
37°C
$3,732 交易量
22%
38°C
$662 交易量
<1%
39°C
$696 交易量
<1%
40°C
$220 交易量
<1%
41°C
$125 交易量
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$15,925结束日期
2026-08-19市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$15,925结束日期
2026-08-19市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETPersistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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