The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Texas 22%
Maine 16%
Michigan 14%
Iowa 13.0%
$19,010 交易量
$19,010 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
22%
Maine
16%
Michigan
14%
Iowa
13%
Alaska
11%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
6%
New Hampshire
5%
Virginia
5%
Montana
5%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Florida (Special)
4%
North Carolina
3%
Georgia
3%
Minnesota
<1%
Texas 22%
Maine 16%
Michigan 14%
Iowa 13.0%
$19,010 交易量
$19,010 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$251 交易量
22%
Maine
$448 交易量
16%
Michigan
$181 交易量
14%
Iowa
$2,314 交易量
13%
Alaska
$4,508 交易量
11%
Ohio (Special)
$2,432 交易量
9%
Nebraska
$226 交易量
6%
New Hampshire
$469 交易量
5%
Virginia
$4,461 交易量
5%
Montana
$450 交易量
5%
New Mexico
$145 交易量
4%
Colorado
$647 交易量
4%
Florida (Special)
$175 交易量
4%
North Carolina
$521 交易量
3%
Georgia
$691 交易量
3%
Minnesota
$1,089 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$19,010结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$19,010结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The equal 44% pricing across these states reflects broad trader consensus that no single 2026 Senate contest has yet emerged as the clear frontrunner for the narrowest margin, with several rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters. Multiple factors sustain the tightness: open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and North Carolina; vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Ossoff in Georgia; and Republican-held specials or battlegrounds in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Recent June 2026 updates from rating outlets, ongoing primaries, and candidate filings have kept projections fluid without decisive separation. National conditions, nominee quality, turnout patterns in swing states, and late polling shifts could widen gaps, while historical precedent shows midterms often produce several races decided by low single digits.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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