Several 2026 Senate contests remain tightly polled within or near the 5% margin, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly 7-8 points alongside open seats and competitive matchups in Republican-leaning states. Recent aggregates highlight Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas as the tightest, with latest surveys showing single-digit or sub-5-point spreads in those states. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina and Iowa, have elevated battleground status, while incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine face narrower paths in a state that leans Democratic federally. With seven weeks until November 3, continued polling movement, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any late shifts in the national environment will determine which races stay inside the threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$64,703 交易量
2026-11-03
德克萨斯州
83%
阿拉斯加
72%
Kansas
63%
密歇根州
66%
爱荷华州
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
56%
缅因州
50%
内布拉斯加州
45%
新罕布什尔州
38%
South Carolina
42%
北卡罗来纳州
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
25%
明尼苏达州
21%
佐治亚州
20%
新墨西哥州
13%
蒙大拿州
10%
科罗拉多州
4%
弗吉尼亚州
3%
$64,703 交易量
德克萨斯州
$7,132 交易量
83%
阿拉斯加
$2,789 交易量
72%
Kansas
$571 交易量
63%
密歇根州
$2,743 交易量
66%
爱荷华州
$5,657 交易量
62%
俄亥俄州（特别）
$3,967 交易量
56%
缅因州
$1,119 交易量
50%
内布拉斯加州
$3,719 交易量
45%
新罕布什尔州
$2,402 交易量
38%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
42%
北卡罗来纳州
$5,817 交易量
27%
佛罗里达（特别）
$2,450 交易量
25%
明尼苏达州
$10,369 交易量
21%
佐治亚州
$2,057 交易量
20%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
13%
蒙大拿州
$3,190 交易量
10%
科罗拉多州
$2,599 交易量
4%
弗吉尼亚州
$1,344 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain tightly polled within or near the 5% margin, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly 7-8 points alongside open seats and competitive matchups in Republican-leaning states. Recent aggregates highlight Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas as the tightest, with latest surveys showing single-digit or sub-5-point spreads in those states. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina and Iowa, have elevated battleground status, while incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine face narrower paths in a state that leans Democratic federally. With seven weeks until November 3, continued polling movement, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any late shifts in the national environment will determine which races stay inside the threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$64,703结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain tightly polled within or near the 5% margin, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly 7-8 points alongside open seats and competitive matchups in Republican-leaning states. Recent aggregates highlight Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas as the tightest, with latest surveys showing single-digit or sub-5-point spreads in those states. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina and Iowa, have elevated battleground status, while incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine face narrower paths in a state that leans Democratic federally. With seven weeks until November 3, continued polling movement, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any late shifts in the national environment will determine which races stay inside the threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$64,703结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETSeveral 2026 Senate contests remain tightly polled within or near the 5% margin, driven by a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by roughly 7-8 points alongside open seats and competitive matchups in Republican-leaning states. Recent aggregates highlight Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas as the tightest, with latest surveys showing single-digit or sub-5-point spreads in those states. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina and Iowa, have elevated battleground status, while incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine face narrower paths in a state that leans Democratic federally. With seven weeks until November 3, continued polling movement, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any late shifts in the national environment will determine which races stay inside the threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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