Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 45th congressional district, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo amid a fragmented GOP field. Redistricting has shifted the seat to a modest Democratic lean (Cook PVI around D+3), bolstered by suburban demographic trends in Orange County portions of the district. Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance and incumbency after his narrow 2024 victory, aligning with forecaster ratings of Likely or Lean Democratic for the November 3 general election. These factors underpin trader consensus around a 91% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health issue for Tran, sharp turnout surge among Republican-leaning Asian-American voters, or major national economic shift could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$30,236 交易量
$30,236 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
$30,236 交易量
$30,236 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$16,968 交易量
91%
共和党
$13,267 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 45th congressional district, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo amid a fragmented GOP field. Redistricting has shifted the seat to a modest Democratic lean (Cook PVI around D+3), bolstered by suburban demographic trends in Orange County portions of the district. Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance and incumbency after his narrow 2024 victory, aligning with forecaster ratings of Likely or Lean Democratic for the November 3 general election. These factors underpin trader consensus around a 91% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health issue for Tran, sharp turnout surge among Republican-leaning Asian-American voters, or major national economic shift could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$30,236结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 45th congressional district, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo amid a fragmented GOP field. Redistricting has shifted the seat to a modest Democratic lean (Cook PVI around D+3), bolstered by suburban demographic trends in Orange County portions of the district. Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance and incumbency after his narrow 2024 victory, aligning with forecaster ratings of Likely or Lean Democratic for the November 3 general election. These factors underpin trader consensus around a 91% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health issue for Tran, sharp turnout surge among Republican-leaning Asian-American voters, or major national economic shift could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,236结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary for California's 45th congressional district, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo amid a fragmented GOP field. Redistricting has shifted the seat to a modest Democratic lean (Cook PVI around D+3), bolstered by suburban demographic trends in Orange County portions of the district. Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance and incumbency after his narrow 2024 victory, aligning with forecaster ratings of Likely or Lean Democratic for the November 3 general election. These factors underpin trader consensus around a 91% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A late-breaking scandal, health issue for Tran, sharp turnout surge among Republican-leaning Asian-American voters, or major national economic shift could still narrow the margin or alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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