Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PLQ 44%
CAQ 36%
PQ 18%
QS 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
PLQ
44%
CAQ
36%
PQ
18%
QS
2%
PCQ
1%
PVQ
<1%
PLQ 44%
CAQ 36%
PQ 18%
QS 2.4%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
PLQ
$3,040 交易量
44%
CAQ
$1,752 交易量
36%
PQ
$1,113 交易量
18%
QS
$978 交易量
2%
PCQ
$553 交易量
1%
PVQ
$829 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
交易量
$8,265结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$8,265结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETRecent polling and seat projections indicate a fragmented Quebec race ahead of the October 5 election, with the Parti Québécois favored for the most seats while the Parti Libéral du Québec and Coalition Avenir Québec compete closely for second. The PLQ maintains a regional stronghold on Montreal's island, supporting its implied probability edge despite lower province-wide support, whereas the CAQ has narrowed gaps in recent surveys through gains among francophones and older voters amid U.S. trade tensions. The PQ leads overall but trails in seat efficiency outside its strongholds, leaving room for volatility in tight ridings. Upcoming campaign events and further regional polling could shift the balance between the PLQ and CAQ for official opposition status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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