Québec Solidaire enters the October 5, 2026 provincial election holding 11 seats from 2022, with current polling averages placing the party at 9-10% support under leader Ruba Ghazal. Aggregated projections from 338Canada and Qc125 forecast 3-11 seats, concentrated in safe or leaning ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques on Montreal Island, plus competitive contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. The party faces defensive battles amid broader shifts toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, yet retains localized strength in urban francophone and progressive districts. Recent campaign launches and volatile polling have not eliminated these core pockets of support, producing the 70% implied probability that QS secures at least one seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
90% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
是
90% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec Solidaire enters the October 5, 2026 provincial election holding 11 seats from 2022, with current polling averages placing the party at 9-10% support under leader Ruba Ghazal. Aggregated projections from 338Canada and Qc125 forecast 3-11 seats, concentrated in safe or leaning ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques on Montreal Island, plus competitive contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. The party faces defensive battles amid broader shifts toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, yet retains localized strength in urban francophone and progressive districts. Recent campaign launches and volatile polling have not eliminated these core pockets of support, producing the 70% implied probability that QS secures at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
交易量
$401结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec Solidaire enters the October 5, 2026 provincial election holding 11 seats from 2022, with current polling averages placing the party at 9-10% support under leader Ruba Ghazal. Aggregated projections from 338Canada and Qc125 forecast 3-11 seats, concentrated in safe or leaning ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques on Montreal Island, plus competitive contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. The party faces defensive battles amid broader shifts toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, yet retains localized strength in urban francophone and progressive districts. Recent campaign launches and volatile polling have not eliminated these core pockets of support, producing the 70% implied probability that QS secures at least one seat.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$401结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETQuébec Solidaire enters the October 5, 2026 provincial election holding 11 seats from 2022, with current polling averages placing the party at 9-10% support under leader Ruba Ghazal. Aggregated projections from 338Canada and Qc125 forecast 3-11 seats, concentrated in safe or leaning ridings such as Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques on Montreal Island, plus competitive contests in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Taschereau. The party faces defensive battles amid broader shifts toward the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec, yet retains localized strength in urban francophone and progressive districts. Recent campaign launches and volatile polling have not eliminated these core pockets of support, producing the 70% implied probability that QS secures at least one seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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