Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) holding third place in first-round scenarios but trending lower after a late-August surge driven by social media growth and debate exposure. Support peaked near 8-11% in late August and early September before softening to the 6-7% range in mid-September surveys as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro consolidated shares amid heightened polarization. With the October 4 first round approaching, the distribution of trader probabilities around 1-6% ranges reflects this volatility, the limited remaining campaign window for further gains, and the structural challenges facing non-aligned candidates in a contest dominated by the two leading contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4-6% 30%
1-2% 27%
低于1% 25%
2-4% 20%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
低于1%
25%
1-2%
27%
2-4%
20%
4-6%
21%
6%及以上
37%
4-6% 30%
1-2% 27%
低于1% 25%
2-4% 20%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
低于1%
$26 交易量
25%
1-2%
$20 交易量
27%
2-4%
$57 交易量
20%
4-6%
$15 交易量
21%
6%及以上
$49 交易量
37%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) holding third place in first-round scenarios but trending lower after a late-August surge driven by social media growth and debate exposure. Support peaked near 8-11% in late August and early September before softening to the 6-7% range in mid-September surveys as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro consolidated shares amid heightened polarization. With the October 4 first round approaching, the distribution of trader probabilities around 1-6% ranges reflects this volatility, the limited remaining campaign window for further gains, and the structural challenges facing non-aligned candidates in a contest dominated by the two leading contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
交易量
$167结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) holding third place in first-round scenarios but trending lower after a late-August surge driven by social media growth and debate exposure. Support peaked near 8-11% in late August and early September before softening to the 6-7% range in mid-September surveys as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro consolidated shares amid heightened polarization. With the October 4 first round approaching, the distribution of trader probabilities around 1-6% ranges reflects this volatility, the limited remaining campaign window for further gains, and the structural challenges facing non-aligned candidates in a contest dominated by the two leading contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$167结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETRecent polling shows Augusto Cury (Avante) holding third place in first-round scenarios but trending lower after a late-August surge driven by social media growth and debate exposure. Support peaked near 8-11% in late August and early September before softening to the 6-7% range in mid-September surveys as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro consolidated shares amid heightened polarization. With the October 4 first round approaching, the distribution of trader probabilities around 1-6% ranges reflects this volatility, the limited remaining campaign window for further gains, and the structural challenges facing non-aligned candidates in a contest dominated by the two leading contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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