Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round to the potential October 25 runoff. Recent August polling from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData shows Lula at 38–42 percent and Bolsonaro at 31–36 percent in first-round scenarios, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—stuck in single digits. Campaign launches in mid-August have reinforced this duopoly, as Lula highlights job creation and social programs while Bolsonaro emphasizes security and the family name. Runoff simulations remain close, with Lula holding narrow edges that fall within margins of error. The first scheduled debate on August 23 and subsequent polling releases before the vote could still shift support among undecided voters or consolidate smaller conservative options.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$482,425 交易量
2026-10-03
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
96%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
93%
雷南·桑托斯
6%
罗梅乌·泽马
3%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
1%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
1%
费尔南多·阿达
1%
$482,425 交易量
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$219,091 交易量
96%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$48,887 交易量
93%
雷南·桑托斯
$15,807 交易量
6%
罗梅乌·泽马
$610 交易量
3%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$698 交易量
1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$34,442 交易量
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$81,768 交易量
1%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$15,629 交易量
1%
费尔南多·阿达
$65,495 交易量
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round to the potential October 25 runoff. Recent August polling from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData shows Lula at 38–42 percent and Bolsonaro at 31–36 percent in first-round scenarios, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—stuck in single digits. Campaign launches in mid-August have reinforced this duopoly, as Lula highlights job creation and social programs while Bolsonaro emphasizes security and the family name. Runoff simulations remain close, with Lula holding narrow edges that fall within margins of error. The first scheduled debate on August 23 and subsequent polling releases before the vote could still shift support among undecided voters or consolidate smaller conservative options.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$482,425结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round to the potential October 25 runoff. Recent August polling from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData shows Lula at 38–42 percent and Bolsonaro at 31–36 percent in first-round scenarios, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—stuck in single digits. Campaign launches in mid-August have reinforced this duopoly, as Lula highlights job creation and social programs while Bolsonaro emphasizes security and the family name. Runoff simulations remain close, with Lula holding narrow edges that fall within margins of error. The first scheduled debate on August 23 and subsequent polling releases before the vote could still shift support among undecided voters or consolidate smaller conservative options.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$482,425结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round to the potential October 25 runoff. Recent August polling from Quaest, Nexus, and PoderData shows Lula at 38–42 percent and Bolsonaro at 31–36 percent in first-round scenarios, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema—stuck in single digits. Campaign launches in mid-August have reinforced this duopoly, as Lula highlights job creation and social programs while Bolsonaro emphasizes security and the family name. Runoff simulations remain close, with Lula holding narrow edges that fall within margins of error. The first scheduled debate on August 23 and subsequent polling releases before the vote could still shift support among undecided voters or consolidate smaller conservative options.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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