Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯 55%
ACM Neto 46%
克莱伯·罗萨 <1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚 <1%
$117,304 交易量
$117,304 交易量
2026-10-04
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯
55%
ACM Neto
46%
克莱伯·罗萨
<1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚
<1%
若昂·罗马
<1%
布鲁诺·苏亚雷斯·雷斯
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔
<1%
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯 55%
ACM Neto 46%
克莱伯·罗萨 <1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚 <1%
$117,304 交易量
$117,304 交易量
2026-10-04
杰罗尼莫·罗德里格斯
$37,118 交易量
55%
ACM Neto
$40,237 交易量
46%
克莱伯·罗萨
$12,792 交易量
<1%
若泽·卡洛斯·阿勒路亚
$10,899 交易量
<1%
若昂·罗马
$5,186 交易量
<1%
布鲁诺·苏亚雷斯·雷斯
$5,325 交易量
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔
$5,747 交易量
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$117,304结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$117,304结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a narrow lead over former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the Bahia gubernatorial race heading into the October 2026 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a closely contested rematch from 2022. Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from July and August, show technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with margins inside the error range. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure, though crime remains a vulnerability. Neto's support has held among independents and right-leaning voters following his alignment with national opposition blocs after União's 2025 break with the Lula administration. The official campaign launch on August 16, recent televised debates, and local alliance shifts among mayors continue to shape voter preferences in this swing-state contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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