Recent national polls from late August show Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly three to six points over Flávio Bolsonaro, placing the expected margin squarely in the narrow 5-10% or sub-5% bands that dominate trader pricing. The gap has tightened since mid-July amid the formal campaign launch, free electoral broadcasts, and the first televised debate, with both frontrunners experiencing modest slippage and third-place options such as Augusto Cury drawing support. Regional polarization, high rejection rates for the incumbent, and questions surrounding opposition candidates have kept the contest competitive without producing decisive separation. A late surge by any minor contender or shifts in undecided voters could still alter the final first-round spread before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 43%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 7.3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 6.5%
$364,298 交易量
$364,298 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
6%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
43%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
38%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
4%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
7%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
<1%
其他
1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 43%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 7.3%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 6.5%
$364,298 交易量
$364,298 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$15,836 交易量
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$30,151 交易量
6%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$26,425 交易量
43%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$30,536 交易量
38%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$10,745 交易量
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$9,025 交易量
4%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$14,226 交易量
7%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$211,721 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$4,889 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$4,913 交易量
<1%
其他
$5,830 交易量
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls from late August show Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly three to six points over Flávio Bolsonaro, placing the expected margin squarely in the narrow 5-10% or sub-5% bands that dominate trader pricing. The gap has tightened since mid-July amid the formal campaign launch, free electoral broadcasts, and the first televised debate, with both frontrunners experiencing modest slippage and third-place options such as Augusto Cury drawing support. Regional polarization, high rejection rates for the incumbent, and questions surrounding opposition candidates have kept the contest competitive without producing decisive separation. A late surge by any minor contender or shifts in undecided voters could still alter the final first-round spread before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$364,298结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls from late August show Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly three to six points over Flávio Bolsonaro, placing the expected margin squarely in the narrow 5-10% or sub-5% bands that dominate trader pricing. The gap has tightened since mid-July amid the formal campaign launch, free electoral broadcasts, and the first televised debate, with both frontrunners experiencing modest slippage and third-place options such as Augusto Cury drawing support. Regional polarization, high rejection rates for the incumbent, and questions surrounding opposition candidates have kept the contest competitive without producing decisive separation. A late surge by any minor contender or shifts in undecided voters could still alter the final first-round spread before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$364,298结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent national polls from late August show Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly three to six points over Flávio Bolsonaro, placing the expected margin squarely in the narrow 5-10% or sub-5% bands that dominate trader pricing. The gap has tightened since mid-July amid the formal campaign launch, free electoral broadcasts, and the first televised debate, with both frontrunners experiencing modest slippage and third-place options such as Augusto Cury drawing support. Regional polarization, high rejection rates for the incumbent, and questions surrounding opposition candidates have kept the contest competitive without producing decisive separation. A late surge by any minor contender or shifts in undecided voters could still alter the final first-round spread before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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