**Forecast models and observational trends position 25–26°C as the most likely range for Shenzhen’s daily minimum temperature on September 1, 2026.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, EaseWeather, and Yr.no, indicate an overnight low near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 26°C (56.5%) and 25°C (41.0%), reflecting trader consensus on typical early-September conditions in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate. Key drivers include persistent high humidity (often 80–95%), light to moderate northerly winds, and residual moisture from recent convective activity that limits radiative cooling overnight. Historical baselines for early September show average lows near 26°C, and current guidance shows no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings notably lower. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited model divergence at this short lead time. Upcoming official updates from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and refined high-resolution runs over the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if rainfall timing or cloud cover changes. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus around the 25–26°C threshold, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of near-term forecast stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日深圳最低溫度？
9月1日深圳最低溫度？
25°C 51%
29°C 47%
26°C 45%
23°C 31%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
22°C or below
5%
23°C
31%
24°C
31%
25°C
51%
26°C
45%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
47%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 51%
29°C 47%
26°C 45%
23°C 31%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
22°C or below
$0 交易量
5%
23°C
$0 交易量
31%
24°C
$0 交易量
31%
25°C
$0 交易量
51%
26°C
$0 交易量
45%
27°C
$0 交易量
26%
28°C
$0 交易量
25%
29°C
$10 交易量
47%
30°C
$0 交易量
1%
31°C
$0 交易量
1%
32°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 25–26°C as the most likely range for Shenzhen’s daily minimum temperature on September 1, 2026.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, EaseWeather, and Yr.no, indicate an overnight low near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 26°C (56.5%) and 25°C (41.0%), reflecting trader consensus on typical early-September conditions in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate.
Key drivers include persistent high humidity (often 80–95%), light to moderate northerly winds, and residual moisture from recent convective activity that limits radiative cooling overnight. Historical baselines for early September show average lows near 26°C, and current guidance shows no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings notably lower. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited model divergence at this short lead time.
Upcoming official updates from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and refined high-resolution runs over the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if rainfall timing or cloud cover changes. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus around the 25–26°C threshold, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of near-term forecast stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 25–26°C as the most likely range for Shenzhen’s daily minimum temperature on September 1, 2026.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, EaseWeather, and Yr.no, indicate an overnight low near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 26°C (56.5%) and 25°C (41.0%), reflecting trader consensus on typical early-September conditions in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate.
Key drivers include persistent high humidity (often 80–95%), light to moderate northerly winds, and residual moisture from recent convective activity that limits radiative cooling overnight. Historical baselines for early September show average lows near 26°C, and current guidance shows no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings notably lower. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited model divergence at this short lead time.
Upcoming official updates from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and refined high-resolution runs over the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if rainfall timing or cloud cover changes. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus around the 25–26°C threshold, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of near-term forecast stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast models and observational trends position 25–26°C as the most likely range for Shenzhen’s daily minimum temperature on September 1, 2026.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, EaseWeather, and Yr.no, indicate an overnight low near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 26°C (56.5%) and 25°C (41.0%), reflecting trader consensus on typical early-September conditions in Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate. Key drivers include persistent high humidity (often 80–95%), light to moderate northerly winds, and residual moisture from recent convective activity that limits radiative cooling overnight. Historical baselines for early September show average lows near 26°C, and current guidance shows no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push readings notably lower. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited model divergence at this short lead time. Upcoming official updates from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau and refined high-resolution runs over the next 24–48 hours could shift probabilities if rainfall timing or cloud cover changes. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus around the 25–26°C threshold, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of near-term forecast stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions