Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, drive trader assessments of airspace closure risk through September 30. The US-Iran ceasefire broke down in July 2026 amid renewed strikes and missile activity, prompting EASA to issue a cautionary Information Note on August 31 valid through September 30 that highlights potential missile and drone threats across the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli authorities have kept civilian airspace open since mid-2026 following repeated closures earlier in the year tied to exchanges with Iran, with Ben Gurion Airport maintaining operations under continuous monitoring. Recent limited Iranian barrages in June did not trigger broad shutdowns, yet the combination of volatile security conditions and the advisory's timing shapes the current market-implied probability of a major closure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$28,802,024 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
68%
$28,802,024 交易量
9月30日
$1,208,865 交易量
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, drive trader assessments of airspace closure risk through September 30. The US-Iran ceasefire broke down in July 2026 amid renewed strikes and missile activity, prompting EASA to issue a cautionary Information Note on August 31 valid through September 30 that highlights potential missile and drone threats across the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli authorities have kept civilian airspace open since mid-2026 following repeated closures earlier in the year tied to exchanges with Iran, with Ben Gurion Airport maintaining operations under continuous monitoring. Recent limited Iranian barrages in June did not trigger broad shutdowns, yet the combination of volatile security conditions and the advisory's timing shapes the current market-implied probability of a major closure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
交易量
$28,802,024結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, drive trader assessments of airspace closure risk through September 30. The US-Iran ceasefire broke down in July 2026 amid renewed strikes and missile activity, prompting EASA to issue a cautionary Information Note on August 31 valid through September 30 that highlights potential missile and drone threats across the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli authorities have kept civilian airspace open since mid-2026 following repeated closures earlier in the year tied to exchanges with Iran, with Ben Gurion Airport maintaining operations under continuous monitoring. Recent limited Iranian barrages in June did not trigger broad shutdowns, yet the combination of volatile security conditions and the advisory's timing shapes the current market-implied probability of a major closure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,802,024結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETOngoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, drive trader assessments of airspace closure risk through September 30. The US-Iran ceasefire broke down in July 2026 amid renewed strikes and missile activity, prompting EASA to issue a cautionary Information Note on August 31 valid through September 30 that highlights potential missile and drone threats across the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli authorities have kept civilian airspace open since mid-2026 following repeated closures earlier in the year tied to exchanges with Iran, with Ben Gurion Airport maintaining operations under continuous monitoring. Recent limited Iranian barrages in June did not trigger broad shutdowns, yet the combination of volatile security conditions and the advisory's timing shapes the current market-implied probability of a major closure.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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