Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district, an R+11 seat covering rural northern areas, where forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary after winning unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising edge, name recognition, and family political legacy reinforce trader consensus, as the district’s consistent partisan lean and absence of major shifts or competitive challengers limit Democratic prospects. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptional turnout and resources that overcome the structural Republican advantage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$38,378 交易量
$38,378 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
94%
民主黨
7%
$38,378 交易量
$38,378 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$15,407 交易量
94%
民主黨
$22,971 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district, an R+11 seat covering rural northern areas, where forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary after winning unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising edge, name recognition, and family political legacy reinforce trader consensus, as the district’s consistent partisan lean and absence of major shifts or competitive challengers limit Democratic prospects. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptional turnout and resources that overcome the structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$38,378結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district, an R+11 seat covering rural northern areas, where forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary after winning unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising edge, name recognition, and family political legacy reinforce trader consensus, as the district’s consistent partisan lean and absence of major shifts or competitive challengers limit Democratic prospects. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptional turnout and resources that overcome the structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$38,378結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district, an R+11 seat covering rural northern areas, where forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary after winning unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. The incumbent’s substantial fundraising edge, name recognition, and family political legacy reinforce trader consensus, as the district’s consistent partisan lean and absence of major shifts or competitive challengers limit Democratic prospects. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptional turnout and resources that overcome the structural Republican advantage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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