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icon for 9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？
地緣政治·Bab El-Mandeb

9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？

icon for 9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？
地緣政治·Bab El-Mandeb

9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？

9月 6

9月 13

9月 6

9月 13

170-189 35%

190-209 28%

210-229 24%

少於170 8%

Polymarket

$36,651 交易量

170-189 35%

190-209 28%

210-229 24%

少於170 8%

Polymarket

$36,651 交易量

少於170

$13,830 交易量

8%

170-189

$287 交易量

35%

190-209

$566 交易量

28%

210-229

$663 交易量

24%

230艘以上

$21,304 交易量

7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi military activity near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in early September 2026 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** Fresh ground offensives and rocket/drone threats in western Yemen have renewed risks for commercial transits, coinciding with Hormuz disruptions that have already elevated the Red Sea route’s strategic role for Saudi crude exports and Asia-Europe container flows. Recent traffic has stabilized around 35–41 vessels per day—well below 2023 peaks but above 2024–2025 lows—yet remains sensitive to any confirmed strikes or expanded blockades on Saudi-linked tonnage. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective carrier pauses, and shadow-fleet usage create week-to-week volatility, keeping the 170–189, 190–209, and 210–229 bins tightly contested as markets weigh near-term deterrence against potential last-minute volume shifts.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$36,651
結束日期
2026-09-13
市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi military activity near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in early September 2026 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** Fresh ground offensives and rocket/drone threats in western Yemen have renewed risks for commercial transits, coinciding with Hormuz disruptions that have already elevated the Red Sea route’s strategic role for Saudi crude exports and Asia-Europe container flows. Recent traffic has stabilized around 35–41 vessels per day—well below 2023 peaks but above 2024–2025 lows—yet remains sensitive to any confirmed strikes or expanded blockades on Saudi-linked tonnage. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective carrier pauses, and shadow-fleet usage create week-to-week volatility, keeping the 170–189, 190–209, and 210–229 bins tightly contested as markets weigh near-term deterrence against potential last-minute volume shifts.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$36,651
結束日期
2026-09-13
市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "170-189" at 35%, followed by "190-209" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？" has generated $36.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？" is "170-189" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "190-209" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.