Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日東京氣溫最高？
9月15日東京氣溫最高？
27°C 24%
25°C 22%
28°C 18%
26°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
21°C或以下
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
22%
26°C
17%
27°C
24%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C或以上
10%
27°C 24%
25°C 22%
28°C 18%
26°C 17%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
21°C或以下
$10 交易量
4%
22°C
$10 交易量
4%
23°C
$11 交易量
3%
24°C
$0 交易量
6%
25°C
$0 交易量
22%
26°C
$3 交易量
17%
27°C
$0 交易量
24%
28°C
$55 交易量
18%
29°C
$22 交易量
7%
30°C
$10 交易量
1%
31°C或以上
$10 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
交易量
$131結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$131結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETEnsemble forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global systems show a tight range of possible maximum temperatures for Tokyo on September 15 driven by a weakening subtropical high and variable moisture advection from the Pacific. This produces closely matched market-implied odds across 25–29 °C because small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or boundary-layer mixing can alter peak readings by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and typical mid-September climatology (historical averages near 27–28 °C) further narrow the distribution, while any late-season frontal passage or increased onshore flow could cap values below 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and updated guidance for clearer signals on these threshold-sensitive variables.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions