Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and GFS consensus indicate Madrid's September 5 high will likely reach 36–37°C under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass over the Iberian Peninsula. This positions the 37°C outcome as the market leader at 45.5% implied probability, followed by 38°C, consistent with historical September extremes and recent regional heat that produced a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. Afternoon observations from official stations will determine resolution, with any late intensification or cloud cover shifts potentially altering the peak within the narrow 36–38°C range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 47%
38°C 28%
36°C 23%
35°C 4%
$50,178 交易量
$50,178 交易量
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
23%
37°C
47%
38°C
28%
39°C
3%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C或更高
<1%
37°C 47%
38°C 28%
36°C 23%
35°C 4%
$50,178 交易量
$50,178 交易量
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
$3,627 交易量
<1%
34°C
$2,648 交易量
1%
35°C
$5,767 交易量
4%
36°C
$9,512 交易量
23%
37°C
$8,043 交易量
47%
38°C
$11,331 交易量
28%
39°C
$5,559 交易量
3%
40°C
$1,936 交易量
<1%
41°C
$179 交易量
<1%
42°C
$1,121 交易量
<1%
43°C或更高
$455 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and GFS consensus indicate Madrid's September 5 high will likely reach 36–37°C under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass over the Iberian Peninsula. This positions the 37°C outcome as the market leader at 45.5% implied probability, followed by 38°C, consistent with historical September extremes and recent regional heat that produced a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. Afternoon observations from official stations will determine resolution, with any late intensification or cloud cover shifts potentially altering the peak within the narrow 36–38°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$50,178結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and GFS consensus indicate Madrid's September 5 high will likely reach 36–37°C under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass over the Iberian Peninsula. This positions the 37°C outcome as the market leader at 45.5% implied probability, followed by 38°C, consistent with historical September extremes and recent regional heat that produced a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. Afternoon observations from official stations will determine resolution, with any late intensification or cloud cover shifts potentially altering the peak within the narrow 36–38°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$50,178結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast models from agencies including AEMET and GFS consensus indicate Madrid's September 5 high will likely reach 36–37°C under partly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and minimal precipitation, driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass over the Iberian Peninsula. This positions the 37°C outcome as the market leader at 45.5% implied probability, followed by 38°C, consistent with historical September extremes and recent regional heat that produced a national September record of 45.7°C on September 4. Afternoon observations from official stations will determine resolution, with any late intensification or cloud cover shifts potentially altering the peak within the narrow 36–38°C range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions