Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate Madrid will reach a peak of 35–36°C on September 6 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 36°C (39%) and 37°C (45.5%). Daytime heating will be enhanced by low humidity and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects and slight model spread in afternoon maximum timing differentiate the 36–37°C outcomes from the lower-probability 38°C (14%). Ensemble guidance shows limited upside risk for 39°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical for short-range temperature forecasts this far into a settled synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月6日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 46%
36°C 39%
38°C 14%
35°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
33°C或以下
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
5%
36°C
39%
37°C
46%
38°C
14%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C或以上
<1%
37°C 46%
36°C 39%
38°C 14%
35°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
33°C或以下
$495 交易量
<1%
34°C
$293 交易量
1%
35°C
$897 交易量
5%
36°C
$1,748 交易量
39%
37°C
$1,878 交易量
46%
38°C
$1,566 交易量
14%
39°C
$350 交易量
1%
40°C
$250 交易量
<1%
41°C
$396 交易量
<1%
42°C
$199 交易量
<1%
43°C或以上
$189 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate Madrid will reach a peak of 35–36°C on September 6 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 36°C (39%) and 37°C (45.5%). Daytime heating will be enhanced by low humidity and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects and slight model spread in afternoon maximum timing differentiate the 36–37°C outcomes from the lower-probability 38°C (14%). Ensemble guidance shows limited upside risk for 39°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical for short-range temperature forecasts this far into a settled synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$8,262結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate Madrid will reach a peak of 35–36°C on September 6 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 36°C (39%) and 37°C (45.5%). Daytime heating will be enhanced by low humidity and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects and slight model spread in afternoon maximum timing differentiate the 36–37°C outcomes from the lower-probability 38°C (14%). Ensemble guidance shows limited upside risk for 39°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical for short-range temperature forecasts this far into a settled synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,262結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate Madrid will reach a peak of 35–36°C on September 6 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 36°C (39%) and 37°C (45.5%). Daytime heating will be enhanced by low humidity and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects and slight model spread in afternoon maximum timing differentiate the 36–37°C outcomes from the lower-probability 38°C (14%). Ensemble guidance shows limited upside risk for 39°C or higher, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical for short-range temperature forecasts this far into a settled synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions