Recent GFS and other model guidance points to clear skies, subsiding air, and southwesterly flow supporting an afternoon maximum near 37°C in Madrid on September 7, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and light winds limiting mixing. This setup favors efficient surface heating but leaves limited headroom for 38°C unless insolation or advection strengthens slightly. Historical September 7 records reach 38.5°C, yet the current climatological baseline near 28–29°C and consensus forecasts cluster tightly around 36–37°C, explaining the near-even market split between the 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Fresh model runs and AEMET observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月7日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月7日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 54%
38°C 41%
36°C 6%
35°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
6%
37°C
54%
38°C
41%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C或更高
<1%
37°C 54%
38°C 41%
36°C 6%
35°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
35°C
$0 交易量
5%
36°C
$33 交易量
6%
37°C
$380 交易量
54%
38°C
$79 交易量
41%
39°C
$29 交易量
3%
40°C
$0 交易量
2%
41°C
$0 交易量
1%
42°C
$33 交易量
<1%
43°C
$33 交易量
<1%
44°C或更高
$33 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and other model guidance points to clear skies, subsiding air, and southwesterly flow supporting an afternoon maximum near 37°C in Madrid on September 7, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and light winds limiting mixing. This setup favors efficient surface heating but leaves limited headroom for 38°C unless insolation or advection strengthens slightly. Historical September 7 records reach 38.5°C, yet the current climatological baseline near 28–29°C and consensus forecasts cluster tightly around 36–37°C, explaining the near-even market split between the 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Fresh model runs and AEMET observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$620結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and other model guidance points to clear skies, subsiding air, and southwesterly flow supporting an afternoon maximum near 37°C in Madrid on September 7, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and light winds limiting mixing. This setup favors efficient surface heating but leaves limited headroom for 38°C unless insolation or advection strengthens slightly. Historical September 7 records reach 38.5°C, yet the current climatological baseline near 28–29°C and consensus forecasts cluster tightly around 36–37°C, explaining the near-even market split between the 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Fresh model runs and AEMET observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$620結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent GFS and other model guidance points to clear skies, subsiding air, and southwesterly flow supporting an afternoon maximum near 37°C in Madrid on September 7, with dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and light winds limiting mixing. This setup favors efficient surface heating but leaves limited headroom for 38°C unless insolation or advection strengthens slightly. Historical September 7 records reach 38.5°C, yet the current climatological baseline near 28–29°C and consensus forecasts cluster tightly around 36–37°C, explaining the near-even market split between the 37°C and 38°C outcomes. Fresh model runs and AEMET observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions