Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a moderating influence from Lake Michigan and increased cloud cover or onshore flow, capping Chicago's peak temperature on August 6 near or below seasonal norms of 83–84°F. This has concentrated trader consensus on the 78–79°F bin (37.5% implied probability) as the most likely outcome, with adjacent 76–77°F and 80–81°F ranges capturing over 40% combined. Updated short-range guidance showing highs in the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies has reinforced this positioning over the past day, while historical August variability and the potential for localized lake-effect cooling or brief showers introduce the modest spread reflected in lower-probability higher bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於芝加哥8月6日最高溫度？
芝加哥8月6日最高溫度？
78-79°F 36%
76-77°F 22%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 13%
最新
$10,521 交易量
最新
$10,521 交易量
2026-08-06
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F或以上
<1%
78-79°F 36%
76-77°F 22%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 13%
最新
$10,521 交易量
最新
$10,521 交易量
2026-08-06
73°F or below
$270 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$2,764 交易量
10%
76-77°F
$701 交易量
22%
78-79°F
$695 交易量
36%
80-81°F
$844 交易量
19%
82-83°F
$1,368 交易量
13%
84-85°F
$2,190 交易量
1%
86-87°F
$373 交易量
<1%
88-89°F
$539 交易量
<1%
90-91°F
$391 交易量
<1%
92°F或以上
$386 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a moderating influence from Lake Michigan and increased cloud cover or onshore flow, capping Chicago's peak temperature on August 6 near or below seasonal norms of 83–84°F. This has concentrated trader consensus on the 78–79°F bin (37.5% implied probability) as the most likely outcome, with adjacent 76–77°F and 80–81°F ranges capturing over 40% combined. Updated short-range guidance showing highs in the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies has reinforced this positioning over the past day, while historical August variability and the potential for localized lake-effect cooling or brief showers introduce the modest spread reflected in lower-probability higher bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$10,521結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a moderating influence from Lake Michigan and increased cloud cover or onshore flow, capping Chicago's peak temperature on August 6 near or below seasonal norms of 83–84°F. This has concentrated trader consensus on the 78–79°F bin (37.5% implied probability) as the most likely outcome, with adjacent 76–77°F and 80–81°F ranges capturing over 40% combined. Updated short-range guidance showing highs in the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies has reinforced this positioning over the past day, while historical August variability and the potential for localized lake-effect cooling or brief showers introduce the modest spread reflected in lower-probability higher bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,521結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 9:02 PM ETRecent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a moderating influence from Lake Michigan and increased cloud cover or onshore flow, capping Chicago's peak temperature on August 6 near or below seasonal norms of 83–84°F. This has concentrated trader consensus on the 78–79°F bin (37.5% implied probability) as the most likely outcome, with adjacent 76–77°F and 80–81°F ranges capturing over 40% combined. Updated short-range guidance showing highs in the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies has reinforced this positioning over the past day, while historical August variability and the potential for localized lake-effect cooling or brief showers introduce the modest spread reflected in lower-probability higher bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions