**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月22日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
8月22日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
104-105°F 100.0%
華氏95度或以下 <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99華氏度 <1%
$19,621 交易量
$19,621 交易量
2026-08-22
華氏95度或以下
否
96-97°F
否
98-99華氏度
否
100-101華氏度
否
華氏102-103度
否
104-105°F
是
106-107°F
否
108-109華氏度
否
110-111華氏度
否
112-113°F
否
114°F 或更高
否
104-105°F 100.0%
華氏95度或以下 <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99華氏度 <1%
$19,621 交易量
$19,621 交易量
2026-08-22
華氏95度或以下
$60 交易量
否
96-97°F
$140 交易量
否
98-99華氏度
$170 交易量
否
100-101華氏度
$1,967 交易量
否
華氏102-103度
$4,172 交易量
否
104-105°F
$6,691 交易量
是
106-107°F
$3,979 交易量
否
108-109華氏度
$1,756 交易量
否
110-111華氏度
$250 交易量
否
112-113°F
$284 交易量
否
114°F 或更高
$153 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$19,621結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$19,621結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions