The closely matched probabilities around 50% reflect a highly competitive text-to-video landscape with no dominant model heading into late September 2026. Frequent releases from labs like Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, Google Veo 3.1, OpenAI Sora 2, Luma Ray 3, and Alibaba-linked HappyHorse/Wan variants have introduced competing strengths in physics simulation, native audio synchronization, temporal consistency, and longer coherent clips. Leaderboards shift rapidly based on blind human evaluations and specific benchmarks, while factors such as accessibility, pricing, and developer ecosystem integration further fragment trader consensus. Recent updates across these platforms underscore the risk of sudden capability jumps before the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMiniMax 50%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 50%
Luma AI 50%
Kandinsky 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
50%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
50%
Luma AI
50%
Kandinsky
49%
Genmo AI
49%
Meta
49%
Pixverse
49%
KlingAI
48%
ByteDance
48%
Tencent
46%
Pika
46%
Lightricks
44%
Runway
44%
OpenAI
43%
Pruna
43%
SpaceXAI
41%
24%
MiniMax 50%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 50%
Luma AI 50%
Kandinsky 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
$0 KL.
50%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$0 KL.
50%
Luma AI
$0 KL.
50%
Kandinsky
$0 KL.
49%
Genmo AI
$0 KL.
49%
Meta
$0 KL.
49%
Pixverse
$0 KL.
49%
KlingAI
$0 KL.
48%
ByteDance
$0 KL.
48%
Tencent
$0 KL.
46%
Pika
$0 KL.
46%
Lightricks
$0 KL.
44%
Runway
$0 KL.
44%
OpenAI
$0 KL.
43%
Pruna
$0 KL.
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 KL.
41%
$0 KL.
24%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% reflect a highly competitive text-to-video landscape with no dominant model heading into late September 2026. Frequent releases from labs like Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, Google Veo 3.1, OpenAI Sora 2, Luma Ray 3, and Alibaba-linked HappyHorse/Wan variants have introduced competing strengths in physics simulation, native audio synchronization, temporal consistency, and longer coherent clips. Leaderboards shift rapidly based on blind human evaluations and specific benchmarks, while factors such as accessibility, pricing, and developer ecosystem integration further fragment trader consensus. Recent updates across these platforms underscore the risk of sudden capability jumps before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% reflect a highly competitive text-to-video landscape with no dominant model heading into late September 2026. Frequent releases from labs like Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, Google Veo 3.1, OpenAI Sora 2, Luma Ray 3, and Alibaba-linked HappyHorse/Wan variants have introduced competing strengths in physics simulation, native audio synchronization, temporal consistency, and longer coherent clips. Leaderboards shift rapidly based on blind human evaluations and specific benchmarks, while factors such as accessibility, pricing, and developer ecosystem integration further fragment trader consensus. Recent updates across these platforms underscore the risk of sudden capability jumps before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 50% reflect a highly competitive text-to-video landscape with no dominant model heading into late September 2026. Frequent releases from labs like Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, Google Veo 3.1, OpenAI Sora 2, Luma Ray 3, and Alibaba-linked HappyHorse/Wan variants have introduced competing strengths in physics simulation, native audio synchronization, temporal consistency, and longer coherent clips. Leaderboards shift rapidly based on blind human evaluations and specific benchmarks, while factors such as accessibility, pricing, and developer ecosystem integration further fragment trader consensus. Recent updates across these platforms underscore the risk of sudden capability jumps before the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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