Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAugust 13 32%
August 23 31%
August 20 31%
August 27 31%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 1, 2026
On or prior to August 1
1%
August 2
1%
August 3
-
August 4
28%
August 5
30%
August 6
6%
August 7
29%
August 8
7%
August 9
6%
August 10
29%
August 11
31%
August 12
-
August 13
32%
August 14
22%
August 15
1%
August 16
10%
August 17
27%
August 18
28%
August 19
30%
August 20
31%
August 21
-
August 22
-
August 23
31%
August 24
-
August 25
30%
August 26
-
August 27
31%
August 28
30%
August 29
18%
August 30
18%
August 31
-
No release by August 31
12%
August 13 32%
August 23 31%
August 20 31%
August 27 31%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 1, 2026
On or prior to August 1
$44 KL.
1%
August 2
$274 KL.
1%
August 3
$141 KL.
-
August 4
$177 KL.
28%
August 5
$382 KL.
30%
August 6
$217 KL.
6%
August 7
$377 KL.
29%
August 8
$177 KL.
7%
August 9
$196 KL.
6%
August 10
$246 KL.
29%
August 11
$177 KL.
31%
August 12
$176 KL.
-
August 13
$177 KL.
32%
August 14
$177 KL.
22%
August 15
$177 KL.
1%
August 16
$177 KL.
10%
August 17
$177 KL.
27%
August 18
$177 KL.
28%
August 19
$177 KL.
30%
August 20
$177 KL.
31%
August 21
$172 KL.
-
August 22
$172 KL.
-
August 23
$177 KL.
31%
August 24
$177 KL.
-
August 25
$177 KL.
30%
August 26
$145 KL.
-
August 27
$211 KL.
31%
August 28
$177 KL.
30%
August 29
$177 KL.
18%
August 30
$177 KL.
18%
August 31
$177 KL.
-
No release by August 31
$794 KL.
12%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,731Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$6,731Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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