Google and Thinking Machines Lab (Thinky) lead market-implied odds near 35% and 33% respectively for second-best AI lab by end-October, reflecting traders' focus on infrastructure scale versus fresh talent and multimodal innovation. Google DeepMind benefits from unmatched compute resources, Gemini model integration across products, and steady benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodality, while Thinky—backed by OpenAI alumni including Mira Murati—draws attention for rapid progress in advanced multimodal systems and research infrastructure. Anthropic trails at 21.5% amid strong Claude enterprise adoption and coding benchmarks, though its top-lab positioning in recent rankings creates uncertainty. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, talent shifts, and any regulatory or partnership developments that could alter competitive positioning among frontier labs before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtStepFun 28%
Anthropic 19%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
15%
Anthropic
19%
Nvidia
18%
Z.ai
16%
Moonshot
14%
OpenAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
Alibaba
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Meta
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Xiaomi
11%
ByteDance
7%
Microsoft
7%
Baidu
23%
Tencent
4%
Amazon
3%
Meituan
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
30%
31%
StepFun 28%
Anthropic 19%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
$37 KL.
15%
Anthropic
$35 KL.
19%
Nvidia
$35 KL.
18%
Z.ai
$35 KL.
16%
Moonshot
$35 KL.
14%
OpenAI
$35 KL.
14%
MiniMax
$127 KL.
14%
Alibaba
$35 KL.
14%
SpaceXAI
$17 KL.
14%
Meta
$17 KL.
14%
DeepSeek
$35 KL.
14%
Xiaomi
$110 KL.
11%
ByteDance
$97 KL.
7%
Microsoft
$141 KL.
7%
Baidu
$35 KL.
23%
Tencent
$74 KL.
4%
Amazon
$42 KL.
3%
Meituan
$24 KL.
3%
Mistral
$63 KL.
3%
Thinky
$95 KL.
30%
$33 KL.
31%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Thinking Machines Lab (Thinky) lead market-implied odds near 35% and 33% respectively for second-best AI lab by end-October, reflecting traders' focus on infrastructure scale versus fresh talent and multimodal innovation. Google DeepMind benefits from unmatched compute resources, Gemini model integration across products, and steady benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodality, while Thinky—backed by OpenAI alumni including Mira Murati—draws attention for rapid progress in advanced multimodal systems and research infrastructure. Anthropic trails at 21.5% amid strong Claude enterprise adoption and coding benchmarks, though its top-lab positioning in recent rankings creates uncertainty. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, talent shifts, and any regulatory or partnership developments that could alter competitive positioning among frontier labs before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,156Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google and Thinking Machines Lab (Thinky) lead market-implied odds near 35% and 33% respectively for second-best AI lab by end-October, reflecting traders' focus on infrastructure scale versus fresh talent and multimodal innovation. Google DeepMind benefits from unmatched compute resources, Gemini model integration across products, and steady benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodality, while Thinky—backed by OpenAI alumni including Mira Murati—draws attention for rapid progress in advanced multimodal systems and research infrastructure. Anthropic trails at 21.5% amid strong Claude enterprise adoption and coding benchmarks, though its top-lab positioning in recent rankings creates uncertainty. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, talent shifts, and any regulatory or partnership developments that could alter competitive positioning among frontier labs before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$1,156Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google and Thinking Machines Lab (Thinky) lead market-implied odds near 35% and 33% respectively for second-best AI lab by end-October, reflecting traders' focus on infrastructure scale versus fresh talent and multimodal innovation. Google DeepMind benefits from unmatched compute resources, Gemini model integration across products, and steady benchmark gains in reasoning and multimodality, while Thinky—backed by OpenAI alumni including Mira Murati—draws attention for rapid progress in advanced multimodal systems and research infrastructure. Anthropic trails at 21.5% amid strong Claude enterprise adoption and coding benchmarks, though its top-lab positioning in recent rankings creates uncertainty. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, talent shifts, and any regulatory or partnership developments that could alter competitive positioning among frontier labs before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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