The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOpenAI 23%
SpaceXAI 21%
Z.ai 19%
ByteDance 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
23%
SpaceXAI
21%
Z.ai
19%
ByteDance
19%
Meituan
19%
Tencent
19%
MiniMax
18%
Anthropic
18%
18%
Xiaomi
17%
Baidu
17%
Thinky
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Alibaba
13%
Nvidia
12%
Microsoft
12%
Moonshot
12%
StepFun
12%
Meta
11%
Amazon
7%
Mistral
7%
OpenAI 23%
SpaceXAI 21%
Z.ai 19%
ByteDance 19%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$36 KL.
23%
SpaceXAI
$36 KL.
21%
Z.ai
$36 KL.
19%
ByteDance
$36 KL.
19%
Meituan
$36 KL.
19%
Tencent
$36 KL.
19%
MiniMax
$36 KL.
18%
Anthropic
$36 KL.
18%
$36 KL.
18%
Xiaomi
$36 KL.
17%
Baidu
$36 KL.
17%
Thinky
$36 KL.
14%
DeepSeek
$36 KL.
14%
Alibaba
$36 KL.
13%
Nvidia
$36 KL.
12%
Microsoft
$36 KL.
12%
Moonshot
$36 KL.
12%
StepFun
$36 KL.
12%
Meta
$36 KL.
11%
Amazon
$36 KL.
7%
Mistral
$36 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$765Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$765Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched 50% market-implied odds across numerous unspecified outcomes and "Other" reflect broad uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second by late November, with traders assigning lower probabilities to established players like OpenAI at 23% and Alibaba at 22%. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model releases, benchmark performance in areas such as reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and scaling progress among labs including Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Moonshot. Differentiating factors include demonstrated AI safety advancements, compute access, talent acquisition, and strategic partnerships, all of which can shift rapidly ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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