Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 59%
Z.ai 36%
Alibaba 34%
MiniMax 28%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
59%
Z.ai
36%
Alibaba
34%
MiniMax
28%
22%
DeepSeek
22%
Mistral
22%
OpenAI
20%
Meituan
20%
Tencent
19%
Moonshot
12%
Xiaomi
12%
Nvidia
12%
StepFun
12%
Amazon
11%
Baidu
11%
Microsoft
11%
SpaceXAI
10%
Meta
8%
ByteDance
12%
Thinky
3%
Anthropic 59%
Z.ai 36%
Alibaba 34%
MiniMax 28%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$76 KL.
59%
Z.ai
$50 KL.
36%
Alibaba
$60 KL.
34%
MiniMax
$50 KL.
28%
$80 KL.
22%
DeepSeek
$50 KL.
22%
Mistral
$58 KL.
22%
OpenAI
$50 KL.
20%
Meituan
$50 KL.
20%
Tencent
$50 KL.
19%
Moonshot
$60 KL.
12%
Xiaomi
$60 KL.
12%
Nvidia
$60 KL.
12%
StepFun
$60 KL.
12%
Amazon
$58 KL.
11%
Baidu
$58 KL.
11%
Microsoft
$58 KL.
11%
SpaceXAI
$58 KL.
10%
Meta
$60 KL.
8%
ByteDance
$71 KL.
12%
Thinky
$58 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,231Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$1,231Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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