Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 26%
Thinky 26%
Amazon 26%
Google 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
26%
Thinky
26%
Amazon
26%
26%
ByteDance
26%
MiniMax
26%
Tencent
26%
Microsoft
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Z.ai
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Meituan
14%
Mistral
14%
Nvidia
14%
Moonshot
14%
OpenAI
14%
StepFun
14%
Meta
13%
Baidu
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Alibaba
8%
Anthropic 26%
Thinky 26%
Amazon 26%
Google 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$0 KL.
26%
Thinky
$0 KL.
26%
Amazon
$0 KL.
26%
$0 KL.
26%
ByteDance
$0 KL.
26%
MiniMax
$0 KL.
26%
Tencent
$0 KL.
26%
Microsoft
$0 KL.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 KL.
14%
Z.ai
$0 KL.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 KL.
14%
Meituan
$0 KL.
14%
Mistral
$0 KL.
14%
Nvidia
$0 KL.
14%
Moonshot
$0 KL.
14%
OpenAI
$0 KL.
14%
StepFun
$0 KL.
14%
Meta
$0 KL.
13%
Baidu
$0 KL.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 KL.
13%
Alibaba
$0 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the frontier AI race, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping composite benchmarks like BenchAlign and LMSpeed while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra sits close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks. This near-parity, alongside strong showings from Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and efficient Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3, explains the market’s dispersed probabilities and low single-digit edges for most named labs. Traders price in continued rapid iteration through November, where new model drops, context-window gains, and leaderboard volatility could shift the #1 position on style-controlled arenas.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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