**Trader consensus has converged sharply on an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, reflecting the latest official observations and short-range model guidance.** Hourly data from regional stations and forecasts show overnight and early-morning temperatures bottoming near this level under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure around 1014 hPa, with dew points supporting radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. Historical late-August baselines for the city (typical lows near 14–16 °C) align with the current cool anomaly driven by the recent synoptic pattern. The 99 % market-implied probability indicates near-certainty among traders that no further drop below 11 °C will occur before midnight. Only an unforecasted sharp cooling episode or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome toward 10 °C or lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,265 Обс.
$2,265 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
99%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,265 Обс.
$2,265 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$271 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$170 Обс.
2%
11°C
$113 Обс.
99%
12°C
$346 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$349 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$130 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$351 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$5 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$305 Обс.
<1%
19°C or higher
$205 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged sharply on an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, reflecting the latest official observations and short-range model guidance.** Hourly data from regional stations and forecasts show overnight and early-morning temperatures bottoming near this level under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure around 1014 hPa, with dew points supporting radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. Historical late-August baselines for the city (typical lows near 14–16 °C) align with the current cool anomaly driven by the recent synoptic pattern. The 99 % market-implied probability indicates near-certainty among traders that no further drop below 11 °C will occur before midnight. Only an unforecasted sharp cooling episode or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome toward 10 °C or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,265Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged sharply on an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, reflecting the latest official observations and short-range model guidance.** Hourly data from regional stations and forecasts show overnight and early-morning temperatures bottoming near this level under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure around 1014 hPa, with dew points supporting radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. Historical late-August baselines for the city (typical lows near 14–16 °C) align with the current cool anomaly driven by the recent synoptic pattern. The 99 % market-implied probability indicates near-certainty among traders that no further drop below 11 °C will occur before midnight. Only an unforecasted sharp cooling episode or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome toward 10 °C or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,265Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has converged sharply on an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, reflecting the latest official observations and short-range model guidance.** Hourly data from regional stations and forecasts show overnight and early-morning temperatures bottoming near this level under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and stable high pressure around 1014 hPa, with dew points supporting radiative cooling without significant advection of warmer air. Historical late-August baselines for the city (typical lows near 14–16 °C) align with the current cool anomaly driven by the recent synoptic pattern. The 99 % market-implied probability indicates near-certainty among traders that no further drop below 11 °C will occur before midnight. Only an unforecasted sharp cooling episode or measurement revision could realistically shift the outcome toward 10 °C or lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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