Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17 °C range, driven by weak southerly advection, elevated dew points near 14–16 °C, and variable cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds (2–4 m/s) and high relative humidity (80–90 % overnight) further suppress temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions typical of late-summer radiative nights. Market-implied odds clustered around 15–17 °C reflect this consensus while acknowledging remaining spread from model timing of convective clouds and exact boundary-layer mixing; lower probabilities for 14 °C or below align with the modest historical frequency of sub-15 °C minima this late in August. Updated model guidance and any rapid changes in storm coverage ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
20°C or higher 51%
17°C 38%
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
13%
12°C
9%
13°C
12%
14°C
28%
15°C
31%
16°C
28%
17°C
38%
18°C
24%
19°C
25%
20°C or higher
51%
20°C or higher 51%
17°C 38%
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$130 Обс.
13%
12°C
$0 Обс.
9%
13°C
$48 Обс.
12%
14°C
$0 Обс.
28%
15°C
$0 Обс.
31%
16°C
$0 Обс.
28%
17°C
$0 Обс.
38%
18°C
$0 Обс.
24%
19°C
$0 Обс.
25%
20°C or higher
$150 Обс.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17 °C range, driven by weak southerly advection, elevated dew points near 14–16 °C, and variable cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds (2–4 m/s) and high relative humidity (80–90 % overnight) further suppress temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions typical of late-summer radiative nights. Market-implied odds clustered around 15–17 °C reflect this consensus while acknowledging remaining spread from model timing of convective clouds and exact boundary-layer mixing; lower probabilities for 14 °C or below align with the modest historical frequency of sub-15 °C minima this late in August. Updated model guidance and any rapid changes in storm coverage ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$328Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17 °C range, driven by weak southerly advection, elevated dew points near 14–16 °C, and variable cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds (2–4 m/s) and high relative humidity (80–90 % overnight) further suppress temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions typical of late-summer radiative nights. Market-implied odds clustered around 15–17 °C reflect this consensus while acknowledging remaining spread from model timing of convective clouds and exact boundary-layer mixing; lower probabilities for 14 °C or below align with the modest historical frequency of sub-15 °C minima this late in August. Updated model guidance and any rapid changes in storm coverage ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$328Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 will likely fall in the 15–17 °C range, driven by weak southerly advection, elevated dew points near 14–16 °C, and variable cloud cover from scattered thunderstorms that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds (2–4 m/s) and high relative humidity (80–90 % overnight) further suppress temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions typical of late-summer radiative nights. Market-implied odds clustered around 15–17 °C reflect this consensus while acknowledging remaining spread from model timing of convective clouds and exact boundary-layer mixing; lower probabilities for 14 °C or below align with the modest historical frequency of sub-15 °C minima this late in August. Updated model guidance and any rapid changes in storm coverage ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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