**Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Tokyo on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's 97.5% implied probability on that outcome.** Typical August overnight lows in Tokyo average around 24°C, but recent model runs and short-range guidance have converged on 26°C as the most likely minimum amid stable summer conditions with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity suppressing further cooling. This consensus reflects the "wisdom of crowds" in the prediction market, where traders incorporate real-time observational data, ensemble model agreement, and historical analogs for early-August heat. Key supporting factors include persistent subtropical high pressure maintaining warm advection and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, increased cloudiness or precipitation enhancing cooling, or revisions in official Japan Meteorological Agency measurements. With resolution imminent, updated model runs or early morning observations represent the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
НОВЕ
$16,117 Обс.
НОВЕ
$16,117 Обс.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
НОВЕ
$16,117 Обс.
НОВЕ
$16,117 Обс.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$348 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$457 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$506 Обс.
1%
25°C
$745 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$1,321 Обс.
98%
27°C
$10,032 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$1,181 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$659 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$372 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$305 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$193 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Tokyo on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's 97.5% implied probability on that outcome.** Typical August overnight lows in Tokyo average around 24°C, but recent model runs and short-range guidance have converged on 26°C as the most likely minimum amid stable summer conditions with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity suppressing further cooling.
This consensus reflects the "wisdom of crowds" in the prediction market, where traders incorporate real-time observational data, ensemble model agreement, and historical analogs for early-August heat. Key supporting factors include persistent subtropical high pressure maintaining warm advection and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies.
Realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, increased cloudiness or precipitation enhancing cooling, or revisions in official Japan Meteorological Agency measurements. With resolution imminent, updated model runs or early morning observations represent the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,117Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Tokyo on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's 97.5% implied probability on that outcome.** Typical August overnight lows in Tokyo average around 24°C, but recent model runs and short-range guidance have converged on 26°C as the most likely minimum amid stable summer conditions with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity suppressing further cooling.
This consensus reflects the "wisdom of crowds" in the prediction market, where traders incorporate real-time observational data, ensemble model agreement, and historical analogs for early-August heat. Key supporting factors include persistent subtropical high pressure maintaining warm advection and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies.
Realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, increased cloudiness or precipitation enhancing cooling, or revisions in official Japan Meteorological Agency measurements. With resolution imminent, updated model runs or early morning observations represent the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$16,117Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for Tokyo on August 1, 2026, aligning with the market's 97.5% implied probability on that outcome.** Typical August overnight lows in Tokyo average around 24°C, but recent model runs and short-range guidance have converged on 26°C as the most likely minimum amid stable summer conditions with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity suppressing further cooling. This consensus reflects the "wisdom of crowds" in the prediction market, where traders incorporate real-time observational data, ensemble model agreement, and historical analogs for early-August heat. Key supporting factors include persistent subtropical high pressure maintaining warm advection and minimal nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Realistic scenarios that could shift the outcome include an unexpected influx of cooler maritime air, increased cloudiness or precipitation enhancing cooling, or revisions in official Japan Meteorological Agency measurements. With resolution imminent, updated model runs or early morning observations represent the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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