Global seismicity currently aligns with long-term USGS averages of roughly 5–9 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, producing the market’s dispersed probabilities that peak at ≤6 (27%). Short-term variability arises mainly from aftershock sequences following any mainshock above 6.0, localized swarms along major plate boundaries, and occasional quiet intervals. No active clusters or foreshock patterns stand out in recent monitoring, keeping odds spread across 7–13. Resolution hinges on the exact count of confirmed 5.5+ events between August 3–9; new USGS catalog updates or a single large quake could quickly shift the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
≤6 26%
8 13%
7 13%
9 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
26%
7
13%
8
13%
9
12%
10
11%
11
10%
12
7%
13
5%
>13
12%
≤6 26%
8 13%
7 13%
9 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$228 Обс.
26%
7
$0 Обс.
13%
8
$58 Обс.
13%
9
$0 Обс.
12%
10
$0 Обс.
11%
11
$73 Обс.
10%
12
$0 Обс.
7%
13
$20 Обс.
5%
>13
$189 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity currently aligns with long-term USGS averages of roughly 5–9 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, producing the market’s dispersed probabilities that peak at ≤6 (27%). Short-term variability arises mainly from aftershock sequences following any mainshock above 6.0, localized swarms along major plate boundaries, and occasional quiet intervals. No active clusters or foreshock patterns stand out in recent monitoring, keeping odds spread across 7–13. Resolution hinges on the exact count of confirmed 5.5+ events between August 3–9; new USGS catalog updates or a single large quake could quickly shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$568Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity currently aligns with long-term USGS averages of roughly 5–9 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, producing the market’s dispersed probabilities that peak at ≤6 (27%). Short-term variability arises mainly from aftershock sequences following any mainshock above 6.0, localized swarms along major plate boundaries, and occasional quiet intervals. No active clusters or foreshock patterns stand out in recent monitoring, keeping odds spread across 7–13. Resolution hinges on the exact count of confirmed 5.5+ events between August 3–9; new USGS catalog updates or a single large quake could quickly shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$568Дата завершення
Aug 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity currently aligns with long-term USGS averages of roughly 5–9 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, producing the market’s dispersed probabilities that peak at ≤6 (27%). Short-term variability arises mainly from aftershock sequences following any mainshock above 6.0, localized swarms along major plate boundaries, and occasional quiet intervals. No active clusters or foreshock patterns stand out in recent monitoring, keeping odds spread across 7–13. Resolution hinges on the exact count of confirmed 5.5+ events between August 3–9; new USGS catalog updates or a single large quake could quickly shift the distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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