Major volcanic eruptions reaching VEI 6 or higher occur infrequently, with historical intervals averaging 50–100 years and the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, ongoing activity at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Etna, and several others remains at lower explosivity levels according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports, with no monitored systems showing the sustained seismic, deformation, or gas emission patterns required for rapid escalation to colossal scale. This absence of precursors, combined with roughly four months remaining in the year, underpins the market’s 94.8% implied probability for no such event. A sudden shift could occur only if an unheralded caldera system like Campi Flegrei or Yellowstone produced unprecedented unrest leading to VEI 6 criteria within the narrow timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
5% шанс
$128,034 Обс.
$128,034 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
5% шанс
$128,034 Обс.
$128,034 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major volcanic eruptions reaching VEI 6 or higher occur infrequently, with historical intervals averaging 50–100 years and the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, ongoing activity at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Etna, and several others remains at lower explosivity levels according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports, with no monitored systems showing the sustained seismic, deformation, or gas emission patterns required for rapid escalation to colossal scale. This absence of precursors, combined with roughly four months remaining in the year, underpins the market’s 94.8% implied probability for no such event. A sudden shift could occur only if an unheralded caldera system like Campi Flegrei or Yellowstone produced unprecedented unrest leading to VEI 6 criteria within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$128,034Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Major volcanic eruptions reaching VEI 6 or higher occur infrequently, with historical intervals averaging 50–100 years and the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, ongoing activity at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Etna, and several others remains at lower explosivity levels according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports, with no monitored systems showing the sustained seismic, deformation, or gas emission patterns required for rapid escalation to colossal scale. This absence of precursors, combined with roughly four months remaining in the year, underpins the market’s 94.8% implied probability for no such event. A sudden shift could occur only if an unheralded caldera system like Campi Flegrei or Yellowstone produced unprecedented unrest leading to VEI 6 criteria within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$128,034Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major volcanic eruptions reaching VEI 6 or higher occur infrequently, with historical intervals averaging 50–100 years and the most recent example being Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, ongoing activity at volcanoes such as Kīlauea, Etna, and several others remains at lower explosivity levels according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports, with no monitored systems showing the sustained seismic, deformation, or gas emission patterns required for rapid escalation to colossal scale. This absence of precursors, combined with roughly four months remaining in the year, underpins the market’s 94.8% implied probability for no such event. A sudden shift could occur only if an unheralded caldera system like Campi Flegrei or Yellowstone produced unprecedented unrest leading to VEI 6 criteria within the narrow timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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