NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system show no known hazardous asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning the 89% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike. Continuous tracking of near-Earth objects (NEOs) reveals only safe flybys, such as the recent 2026 JH2 passage at lunar distances, with objects under 25 meters typically burning up harmlessly. Historical false alarms like 2024 YR4 further illustrate how initial probabilities drop with refined orbital data. Upcoming catalysts include new detections from surveys and routine updates to risk lists, though current planetary defense consensus reflects the low likelihood of an undetected large impactor materializing before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
11% шанс
$179,081 Обс.
$179,081 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
11% шанс
$179,081 Обс.
$179,081 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system show no known hazardous asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning the 89% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike. Continuous tracking of near-Earth objects (NEOs) reveals only safe flybys, such as the recent 2026 JH2 passage at lunar distances, with objects under 25 meters typically burning up harmlessly. Historical false alarms like 2024 YR4 further illustrate how initial probabilities drop with refined orbital data. Upcoming catalysts include new detections from surveys and routine updates to risk lists, though current planetary defense consensus reflects the low likelihood of an undetected large impactor materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$179,081Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system show no known hazardous asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning the 89% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike. Continuous tracking of near-Earth objects (NEOs) reveals only safe flybys, such as the recent 2026 JH2 passage at lunar distances, with objects under 25 meters typically burning up harmlessly. Historical false alarms like 2024 YR4 further illustrate how initial probabilities drop with refined orbital data. Upcoming catalysts include new detections from surveys and routine updates to risk lists, though current planetary defense consensus reflects the low likelihood of an undetected large impactor materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$179,081Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system show no known hazardous asteroids on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning the 89% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike. Continuous tracking of near-Earth objects (NEOs) reveals only safe flybys, such as the recent 2026 JH2 passage at lunar distances, with objects under 25 meters typically burning up harmlessly. Historical false alarms like 2024 YR4 further illustrate how initial probabilities drop with refined orbital data. Upcoming catalysts include new detections from surveys and routine updates to risk lists, though current planetary defense consensus reflects the low likelihood of an undetected large impactor materializing before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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