No at 70.5% aligns with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact this year. Ongoing close approaches tracked through August 2026 involve objects tens to hundreds of meters across that pass millions of miles away, well outside impact risk. Small fireballs occur regularly, yet objects large enough for 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy release remain statistically infrequent and undetectable until late detection windows. ESA risk lists and recent model runs reinforce this consensus, with any market movement tied to new survey data or refined orbits rather than confirmed threats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
30% шанс
$312,008 Обс.
$312,008 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
30% шанс
$312,008 Обс.
$312,008 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70.5% aligns with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact this year. Ongoing close approaches tracked through August 2026 involve objects tens to hundreds of meters across that pass millions of miles away, well outside impact risk. Small fireballs occur regularly, yet objects large enough for 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy release remain statistically infrequent and undetectable until late detection windows. ESA risk lists and recent model runs reinforce this consensus, with any market movement tied to new survey data or refined orbits rather than confirmed threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$312,008Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 70.5% aligns with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact this year. Ongoing close approaches tracked through August 2026 involve objects tens to hundreds of meters across that pass millions of miles away, well outside impact risk. Small fireballs occur regularly, yet objects large enough for 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy release remain statistically infrequent and undetectable until late detection windows. ESA risk lists and recent model runs reinforce this consensus, with any market movement tied to new survey data or refined orbits rather than confirmed threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$312,008Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 70.5% aligns with NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton impact this year. Ongoing close approaches tracked through August 2026 involve objects tens to hundreds of meters across that pass millions of miles away, well outside impact risk. Small fireballs occur regularly, yet objects large enough for 5 kt TNT-equivalent energy release remain statistically infrequent and undetectable until late detection windows. ESA risk lists and recent model runs reinforce this consensus, with any market movement tied to new survey data or refined orbits rather than confirmed threats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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